Explaining Southern California's economy

Get ready for tomorrow's jobs report

A jobs sign hangs above the entrance to

KAREN BLEIER/AFP/Getty Images

A jobs sign hangs above the entrance to the US Chamber of Commerce building in Washington, DC.

Time to take a crack at handicapping tomorrow's official March jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). If you'll recall, February came in at 227,000 and the national unemployment rate remained at 8.3 percent. That was good but not great; the economy really needs to add close to 400,000 jobs each month to reduce the rate to a pre-crisis level. But for the moment, adding 200,000-plus jobs each month shows that the economy is slowly recovering and expanding, even if GDP growth is only running at 2-2.5 percent.

There's a wrinkle to the March numbers — the data is usually released in the first Friday of the month, and this time around Friday is a holiday for the stock market (Good Friday). This basically gives traders a long weekend to digest the news.

Anyway, to the handicapping! The ADP report came out yesterday and said the economy added 209,000 in March. The Bloomberg consensus — a survey of 77 economists — says the number will be 205,000. Business Insider has been crunching various datasets of late and comes up with 193,000, a somewhat alarming figure given that we want to see 200,000 at least to support the idea that GDP is puttering along at around 2-2.5 percent, down from the 3 percent we saw in the fourth quarter of last year, but not the discouraging sub-2-percent pace we witnessed in much of 2011.

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February jobs report: Just what the doctor ordered

A jobs sign hangs above the entrance to

KAREN BLEIER/AFP/Getty Images

A jobs sign hangs above the entrance to the US Chamber of Commerce building in Washington, DC.

A real recovery in the U.S. jobs market is definitely building up a head of steam, but at this point it's still a slow process. The February jobs report is out from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and while it's not a home run or even a nice stand-up double, it's still pretty solid: The economy added 227,000 jobs in the shortest month of the year. The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 8.3 percent.

That's the headline number, but what's really encouraging about this report is the revision to the January data. The BLS initially reported 243,000 jobs added, but that number has been revised up to 284,000, which means that on an adjusted basis we're getting closer to the 300-350,000 new-jobs-per-month number that would start to move the national unemployment level much lower. 

In any case, if the trend of upward revisions continues — the past two months have both been revised up the following month — then we can expect February to look better by the time the March data rolls in come April. The bottom line is that the official number came is slightly higher, by around 10,000 jobs, than both the ADP report and the so-called economic "consensus." It also beat bullish predictions that said we'd add less than 200,000 jobs and see the unemployment rate actually rise. 

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February jobs report: Better than January?

A jobs sign hangs above the entrance to

KAREN BLEIER/AFP/Getty Images

A jobs sign hangs above the entrance to the US Chamber of Commerce building in Washington, DC.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its February jobs report on Friday. The January report was better than expected, with the country adding 243,000 jobs and the unemployment rate falling to 8.3 percent. The big question for February is, "Will the improving trend continue?"

Chances are good. The ADP report — which hasn't been all that reliable a predictor of the BLS data of late — came out today and said that the economy had added 216,000 new jobs, barely beating the Bloomberg consensus, which expects a nearly identical 215,000. 

Meanwhile, Business Insider engaged in a very elaborate piece of analysis and came up with — wait for it — 285,000! That would be, as BI notes, the best monthly jobs report in six years. I like that BI zeroes in on auto sales as a key predictor. February saw sales rise to a 15-million annual pace, more than two million better than 2011. 

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