Explaining Southern California's economy

California home sales, foreclosures, and the fiscal cliff

Reed Saxon

A foreclosure sign in Pasadena. As the backlog of foreclosures has been worked through, borrowers who are less underwater are turning to short sales. But the expiration of a Bush era tax law could upset this market.

Distressed homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages, owing more than the house is worth, have two main options, if they don't try to pursue a government-sponsored modification program: foreclosure or short sale.

Financially, foreclosure makes more sense for borrowers who are way underwater, owing say $400,000 on a house that's now worth $300,000. Struggling to make the monthly payments, maybe because some financial cataclysm has befallen the family, just adds to the pain. Super-distressed homeowners quit making payments and wait for the bank to repossess the home. Unfortunately, this process tends to depress prices and lower overall home values if a region is particularly hard-hit. 

If you want to look for places where foreclosures are in crisis mode, the bankrupt California cities of Stockton and San Bernardino are a good place to start (although the pace of foreclosures in those areas has slowed substantially in recent months).

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