Explaining Southern California's economy

Why the US economy is stuck at 2 percent growth

A year later, and the slow-growth economy that was predicted in 2011 has definitely arrived. Orange County is somewhat defying the trend, however.

The U.S. Commerce Department just released data on U.S. economic growth in the third quarter. The nation's gross domestic product (GDP) was 2 percent, a significant improvement over the second quarter's 1.3 percent.

Conveniently, I was at the Orange County Business Council's 18th annual economic forecast Thursday and heard two California State University Fullerton economists grapple with the implications of what it means to be "2 percenters" when it comes to GDP growth.

Anil Puri and Mira Farka will be familiar to readers of the DeBord Report. I've covered their presentations on several occasions and attended last year's forecast. At that time, I suggested that Puri and Farka were basically forecasting a slow-growth, high-unemployment economy for 2012 — which is pretty much what we got. I call this "stuckflation," a reference to the infamous "stagflation" of the 1970s, with the main differences being that we do not currently have the high interest rates and high inflation of the Carter era.

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