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A Yahoo! billboard is visible through trees in San Francisco, California.
I used to think that Microsoft should buy Yahoo. It didn't in 2008 — although that was less about Microsoft than it was about Yahoo's unwillingness to sell. Now that Yahoo has entered something of a tailspin, canning its CEO and exploring some sale options, Microsoft is back. And oh boy! What a deal it's looking to make.
But I now don't think Microsoft should buy Yahoo.
Potential suitors said they believe Yahoo’s inherent value is lower than its current share price of about $16.12, which they say includes a “deal premium” reflecting investors’ anticipation of the sale of Yahoo, people familiar with the matter said. The stock has run up since Carol Bartz was ousted as chief executive last month and Yahoo launched a strategic review.
In 2008, Microsoft was offering $31/share. It's traded as low as about $11. I'd say it's worth way more than $16, but in any case, Microsoft is now positioning itself to take a sweet stake, in preferred shares. I think this lessens the chance that I'll get my wish, which is to have Yahoo shed its identify as a tech company and remake itself as a Southern California-based online entertainment juggernaut. Microsoft doesn't need to be buying it. Disney does.
Earlier this week, the Wrap's Fred Schruers had a piece on the post-Carol Bartz Yahoo world and reported that Daniel Loeb, who runs the $8 billion hedge fund ThirdPoint LLC, was making a run at the beleaguered Internet giant. Here's what Schruers had to say, under the headline "Yahoo Under Siege: As Hedge-Fund Raider Closes In, Founders Hint at Sale":
No investor is more of a threat than hedge-fund powerhouse Daniel Loeb, who has recently acquired 5.2 percent of Yahoo's stock. Loeb has gone after companies he thinks are mis-managed before, but the level of vitriol -- and cash -- he’s throwing at the Yahoo board shows that he’s deadly earnest this time.
For a taste of the "vitriol," you can sample this letter that Loeb sent to the Yahoo board earlier this month:
it is evident that merely replacing the Company’s CEO – yet again – will not be enough to alter the direction of the Company. Instead, a reconstituted Board with new Directors who will bring fresh eyes, relevant industry expertise and increased investor alignment to the table is immediately necessary.