Explaining Southern California's economy

Will California once again lead the nation as Medicaid is expanded?

Supreme Court Upholds Obama's Affordable Care Act

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Obamacare supporters and protesters gather in front of the U.S. Supreme Court to find out the ruling on the Affordable Health Act June 28, 2012 in front of the U.S. Supreme Court. California is already ahead of the curve on expanding Medicare. Will the nation follow?

One of the critical elements of the just-released Supreme Court decision on the Affordable Care Act, or "Obamacare," is the piece that gives states the option of saying no to money from the government that would have expanded Medicare coverage. This is from Josh Barro at Bloomberg:

Today’s Supreme Court ruling upheld the individual mandate in the Affordable Care Act. But it did strike down one part of the law—the provision that withdraws all Medicaid funding from states that do not expand eligibility to all people under age 65 living below 133 percent of the poverty line. States that do not expand eligibility will have to forgo only those federal funds that would have financed the expanded coverage, not all Medicaid funds.

I'm no legal scholar, but the debate over this piece of the law is a fairly straight-up case of federalism versus states' rights, that oldest of American Con Law dustups. Here's how it goes: The law as written would have effectively taken away all Medicaid money that didn't participate in the ACA expansion. That would represent a federal penalty imposed on the states for saying "No thanks" to the extra money. 

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Visual Aid: Where the jobs aren't in California

This chart, from the just-released UCLA Anderson Forecast, tells a very clear story about both why California's economy is so bad and what it needs to do to make it better (Sorry I can't make the actual chart a bit more clear!). We're creating jobs in health care, tourism, and scientific and technical services. We're losing jobs in construction, retail, and government. Everything else is pretty much flat.

Here's what that means. California needs to play to its strengths and be strategic about its future. We have a good shot at being the global leader in keeping people heathy longer and in caring for not just our own aging population, but the aging populations of other countries, especially China.

People still like beaches, sunshine, and Disneyland. Probably the Golden Gate and wine country, too.

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