Explaining Southern California's economy

Following up on the flock of black swans

To guard against "black swan" events, companies can assess their global exposure to "resiliency risk."

Last week, I had a great follow-up conversation with Matthew Le Merle of Booz & Co., prompted by my post on a white paper he authored for the consultancy. The paper was titled "Are You Ready for a Black Swan? Stress-Testing the Enterprise with Disrupter Analysis" and it laid out a methodology for global corporations to mitigate the impact of "black swans" — unforeseen events that can have cataclysmic consequences.

One of the things that Le Merle pointed out was that disrupter analysis can reveal greater "risk concentration" in an enterprise than was previously known. I thought this was stunning:

Risk concentration shouldn't be a revelation. Risk ought to be something that professionals can assess if not completely quantify. If the risk crosses a threshold, then they can abandon the project, trade, whatever. They shouldn't have so thoroughly botched the analysis that a black swan looms.