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CANNES, FRANCE - NOVEMBER 03: US President Barack Obama is welcomed by the French President Nicolas Sarkozy to the G20 Summit on November 3, 2011 in Cannes, France. World's top economic leaders are attending the G20 summit in Cannes on November 3rd and 4th, and are expected to debate current issues surrounding the global financial system in the hope of fending off a global recession and finding an answer to the Eurozone crisis. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
Aren't you glad we don't have Greece to worry about anymore? After two years of crisis, the Greek economy is in full meltdown mode and the country's political system is falling apart. It has no hope of paying back its debt. The only question now is whether it will remain the Euro currency union, or whether default and bankruptcy will mean a return to drachma.
We now turn our attention to Italy, number three in economic size, behind German and France. There's enough money sloshing around the euro currency union to deal with Greece and similar small economies, but if Italy can't refinance its 1.9 trillion euros of debt, a bailout isn't currently a realistic option.
Unless maybe the Chinese pitch in. China has more than $3 trillion in foreign currency reserves, which it could pump into Europe. The question is what this would ultimately cost Europe, in terms of various trade-offs (pun intended), not to mention what it would cost China itself. This is Yu Yongding, former member of China’s central bank monetary policy committee, writing recently in the Financial Times:
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LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 5: Molly Hawkey, who moved her money from a bank to a credit union this week, carries her sign in the downtown financial district during during the the Move Your Money March on what is being called Bank Transfer Day on November 5, 2011 in Los Angeles, California. Occupy movement members are calling for people to move their money from banks to credit unions today in support of the 99% movement. (Photo by David McNew/Getty Images)
I went on American Now with Andy Dean on Friday to discuss Bank Transfer Day, which of course took place on Saturday. Andy's a sharp and entertaining guy who's no fan of the Occupy Wall Street movement, nor really of the bank transfer idea, but he certainly wasn't afraid to engage in some lively back-and-forth on the topic. Good radio!
You can listen to the segment here. It's the second hour of the show, from Nov. 4. We also wound up discussing my idea that the Post Office could enter the banking business, as a way of saving its skin. And we wrapped it all up with the meltdown of MF Global and the fate of its CEO, former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, who may or may not wind up in jail.
In terms of the postgame analysis for Bank Transfer Day, there does seem to be a sense that the lead-up to the protest effort saw a fair number of people move their accounts from big banks to credit unions. Firedoglake has a small amount of snap feedback.
Unemployment in America grinds on as job seekers confront a weak recovery.
The BLS released October employment numbers this morning, and the numbers were disappointing. We were looking for around 100,000 new jobs, but we got only 80,000. The pattern for the past few months has been for a low number to be revised up. August, for example, came in at zero (yes, zero) but was later revised up, as was September.
So that's the silver lining. Taking revised data into account, we added about 100,000 more jobs than the BLS originally thought at the end of the summer and into the early fall.
Altogether, this was enough to shave 0.1 percent off the unemployment level: we went from 9.1 to 9.0 (Hooray, U.S. economy!). Obviously, this is a dismal pace of improvement, unlikely to do much at all to bring the economy back to "full" employment of around 4 percent anytime soon.
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Unemployed people search for jobs in an employment office in the southern Californian town of El Centro.
Just a heads-up: the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release preliminary employment numbers for October tomorrow morning. Typically, observers look to the ADP report for advance insight into what BLS might report. This is from the Wall Street Journal:
Hiring by private-sector employers remained modest last month. The ADP National Employment Report showed employers added 110,000 jobs in October, down slightly from the revised 116,000 jobs added in September.
For the past few months, the data has been kind of heavily doubted and debated before the BLS official stats emerge. The concern has been that expectations will be gravely disappointed. 100,000 new jobs added will suddenly become...zero!
However, the anxiety seems to have moderated. Initial jobless claims are starting to look like they're falling off, preparing move below 400,000 for a sustained period as GDP growth picks up. The upshot is that the economy isn't getting worse, but it isn't really poised to blast off, either.
Here's a quick primer on the difference between "Keynesians," who want to spend money to get the economy going, and "austerians" (a little play of words of "Austrians," an anti-Keynesian school of economics), who insist that we need to cut back, belt-tighten, and stop racking up debt. In the video, Henry Blodget of Business Insider sits down with Niall Ferguson, a Harvard professor and historian who hasn't just taken up a strongly anti-Keynesian stance since the financial crisis but has also argued that America's about to go down the imperial drain, and fast.
Ferguson's performance is masterful in its bet-hedging. For example, he wants to find a ceiling for U.S. borrowing — but the debate we had earlier this year about...the ceiling for U.S. borrowing displeased him.
Anyway, you get the idea. He's not in agreement with New York Times columnist and Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman. Krugman and Ferguson have actually knocked heads at the same event, with Ferguson repeating his argument that markers for U.S. debt are OK "until they aren't," maintaining that the big risk for the USA is a loss of investor confidence. Krugman, for his part, insists that the multi-billion post-financial-crisis stimulus bill wasn't big enough.