The polling firm Latino Decisions has put together an interesting chart using census data that lists the potential states where Latino voters might have the most influence in the November 2012 presidential and U.S. Senate election outcome. The chart lists the percentage of Latinos among those eligible to vote, along with an estimate of how many Latinos who are eligible to vote aren't yet registered.
One of the questions to come out of the 2010 Census has been whether or not the dramatic growth of the U.S. Latino population - now more than 50 million strong - translates into near-term political clout, not only in terms of redistricting based on population counts, but in terms of general Latino votes. From the report that accompanies the chart, released today:
By the 2012 election, Latinos will account for over 10% of the citizen adult population – potential voters – in 11 states. In another 13 states, Latino account for 5-10% of the citizen adult population. All told, that’s 24 states where Latinos have the capacity to influence electoral outcomes, given a competitive statewide election.
The report points out that much of the political influence of Latinos in 2012 will depend on voter registration between now and then, as to date, Latinos have lower registration rates than non-Latino black and white voters.