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The big bets in Jerry Brown's budget

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41287 full

The state budget, signed last week by Gov. Jerry Brown, was crafted with a number of high-stakes assumptions, the L.A. Times points out today.

The future of wealth inheritance and estate tax in the country, for example, seems destined to cause a ripple that will either flood California shores with revenue, or drag the state through the sand of fiscal drought a while longer. 

The accuracy of Brown's crystal ball will be tested, and the potential consequences of potential forecast fails will play out in the uncertain future (AKA: Reply hazy). 

The Times reports that the Governor partially built the budget on the following big bets:

  • That current policy on federal estate tax will change.
  • That voters will approve $8 billion in higher taxes in November.
  • That Facebook will generate $1.9 billion in tax receipts.
  • That defunct redevelopment agencies will provide $900 million more than is currently being anticipated.

Regarding the expectation of the estate tax, the Brown administration calculates a slow start with approximately $45 million the first year, says the Times. By fiscal year 2015-16, they foresee that number growing to around $1.2 billion. 

Full Revised Budget Detail: California Governor's Budget 2012-13

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