Politics, government and public life for Southern California

The latest odds for California's big money propositions

Julie Small/KPCC

Gov. Jerry Brown's Proposition 30, which would raise taxes to bolster funding for education and public safety, has lost some support in the most recent polls.

With so much at stake on the November ballot, we'll see polls more frequently as the election approaches. Here are the latest results: 

Prop 32 — The proposition to ban payroll deductions for political contributions appears up for grabs.

The latest Field Poll, released Friday, shows 38% of voters inclined to support it, and 44% likely to reject it. But 18% of voters haven’t made up their minds yet.

How people feel about the effort to curb special interest money depends a lot on how they view the political influence of unions and corporations. The poll finds that while pluralities think both groups wield too much sway over Sacramento, 67% of respondents are critical of corporations, compared to 47% who disapprove of unions.

Prop 30 v. Prop 38 — Of the two initiatives that would raise taxes to help pay for schools, Prop 30 still leads, but support has slipped.

In a Field Poll released Thursday, 51% of voters say they’d vote yes on Governor Brown’s plan to temporarily raise sales and income taxes to boost the state’s general fund and prevent cuts to schools and public safety. 36% say they’ll vote no.

The factor to note here is an increase in voters who are undecided: 13% say they don’t know which way to go on Prop 30. But watch for the well-funded Prop 30 campaign to launch a media onslaught any time now.

Prop 38 — Molly Munger’s tax initiative lags Governor Brown's plan by ten percentage points. 

41% of likely voters say they support the plan to raise income tax for most Californians to pay into a special fund for schools; 44% oppose it; 15 % of voters are still up for grabs.

Prop 39 — This would nullify the current law that allows multi-state corporations to choose the method of paying sales tax rate that’s most beneficial to them. If voters approve the measure, all companies selling goods in California would have to pay taxes on a percentage of those sales. The proposition holds a slim lead in the most recent Field Poll.

45% of voters plan to vote yes. 39% of voters oppose the idea of increasing corporate taxes. 16% don’t know how they feel yet.

The numbers show how hard it can be to sell a proposition to Californians.

Prop 39, expected to generate an extra billion dollars a year for state government, faces no formal opposition.

As of September 17th, the main backers, hedge fund manager Tom Steyer and some other deep-pocketed folks, contributed $23 million to the campaign.

Dollars contributed to defeat the measure: $0

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