Politics, government and public life for Southern California

Telling details from LMU's election exit poll

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Tuesday night, just after the polls closed, Fernando Guerra disclosed the initial results of an Election Day exit poll, which predicted a victory by Eric Garcetti over Wendy Greuel by 54 percent to 46 percent.

Guerra, who directs Loyola Marymount University's Center for the Study of Los Angeles, was spot on. His numbers exactly matched the final count delivered by the L.A. City Clerk's office at 3:15 Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday afternoon, the LMU center issued the details of the exit poll, and the results display just how much Garcetti dominated the race.

RELATEDFull details of LMU's exit poll 

The best illustration might be to examine the few categories that Greuel won:

  • She won the African-American vote by a whopping 69-31 percent, likely due to her connection to revered former Mayor Tom Bradley and endorsements from Magic Johnson and Congresswoman Maxine Waters.
  • Greuel won the San Fernando Valley vote, but only by a narrow 51-49 percent. Greuel grew up in the Valley and represented that area when she served on the City Council. But Garcetti has roots there too.
  • And Greuel won among households with a resident who belongs to a public union. But her margin was .8 percent — actually a statistical tie with Garcetti. This was a surprise given the millions of dollars that public employee unions spent on Greuel's behalf.

Otherwise, Garcetti won in virtually every other category:

  • Among women, he led by only .6 percent — another statistical tie, but significant because Greuel was attempting to become L.A.'s first woman mayor; Garcetti dominated with male voters (60-40 percent).
  • Garcetti won in every age group — 18-29, 30-44, 45-64 and 65+ — with at least 55 percent of the vote.
  • He captured votes from Democrats (53-47) and Republicans as well (61-39). The latter result may be tied to Greuel's connection to labor unions. (The mayor's race is non-partisan but both Garcetti and Greuel are registered Democrats.)
  • Garcetti won the Catholic, Protestant and Jewish votes with at least 52 percent. (Garcetti's mother is Jewish.)
  • He won among Latinos (60-40), whites (59-41) and Asians (55-45). (Garcetti is of Mexican ancestry on his father's side.)
  • In households outside the San Fernando Valley, Garcetti won 58 percent of the vote.
  • Garcetti won in every income category — with his margin increasing along with household income levels.
  • He was favored by heterosexual voters (55-45) and gay voters (72-28).
  • In non-labor union households, Garcetti won 59-41 percent, and he won in households with a private union member by 53-47 percent.
  • Finally, Garcetti was favored by self-described liberals (54-46), moderates (57-43) and conservatives (60-40).

So at least according to the election results, Eric Garcetti is all things to almost all people. The question is: Can he keep that up? Actually, should he keep that up?




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