A polling place in Glassell Park on June 5, 2012
Do political exit polls misrepresent Latinos and other voters of color?
So argues Stanford University political scientist Gary Segura today in a piece on the Latino Decisions website; the polling firm, in which he is a principal, has been keeping tabs on the Latino voter climate in the runup to next week's election.
Segura points to language as one problem that can affect exit poll tallies on election night, and how inaccuracies tend to prevail within smaller, geographically concentrated groups of ethnic voters. In addition, he writes the exit polls tend to over-represent people of color who are middle-class and better educated, and this also affects results. He points out some previous unusual exit poll numbers, for example, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer "attracting an above-average 28% share of Arizona’s Hispanic vote just months after signing SB1070 into law," according to the National Exit Poll from 2010.
Two Riverside natives are competing to become the first representative of the newly drawn 41st Congressional District. It covers a big part of the Inland Empire including Riverside and Moreno Valley.
Inside a classroom during a recent campaign visit to Riverside Community College, Takano tells a couple dozen students and would-be campaign volunteers what he’ll do if elected to Congress. It’s a comfortable setting for the 52-year-old Democrat: Takano is a Riverside Community College trustee.
“I talk about the choice in this election being about common sense Riverside values and those values being things like aid to community colleges,” Takano says. “We have people here who will benefit from the Affordable Health Care Act.”
A new Field Poll suggests that each of the rival tax measures on the November ballot is drawing support away from the other.
The survey has Brown’s measure, Proposition 30, leading by 10 points — but down from previous Field polls and just short of the 50 percent it needs to pass. Education advocate Molly Munger’s tax measure, Prop 38, trails by 15 points.
“Prop 38 is pulling some voters away from 30," says Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo. "We’re measuring it at 9%.”
Yet, DiCamillo says Prop 30’s undecided voters could be more likely to vote yes in the end. For example, more of them approve of the governor’s job performance than disapprove, and are concerned about potential budget cuts if the measure fails.
“So all these things indicate to me that the governor’s measure is in fairly decent shape,” DiCamillo said.
According to the Los Angeles Times, police shot a man who was handcuffed and lying down on his stomach.
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Today is Thursday, Nov. 1, and here is what's happening in Los Angeles:
A South L.A. man was shot by police officers while he was handcuffed and lying on his stomach, according to the Los Angeles Times. "The case marks the second time in as many months that the LAPD has withheld important and potentially unfavorable information from the public in cases involving serious uses of force by officers," according to The Times.
A proposed ballot measure that would have allowed the Los Angeles City Council to hire its own attorneys will not appear on the March ballot, reports the Los Angeles Times. Council members and City Attorney Carmen Trutanich will meet over the next two weeks to see if they can reach an agreement on their own.
One steady source of income to Congressional campaigns in this election has been from current members. And they have lots of different ways to give.
Nancy Pelosi rose through the ranks to become the Democrats’ Congressional leader in part because of her fundraising prowess. In this election cycle, for example, she raised more than $2 million for her own campaign.
Sheila Krumholz, who heads the Center for Responsive Politics, says because Pelosi’s re-election is a lock, she can open up her purse strings: "She can then take that money to tithe to the party."
Pelosi can do this by contributing to the party's campaign arm for House members, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Krumholz says Pelosi will raise funds, "both from her campaign and from her leadership PAC. She will then support other colleagues, junior colleagues, struggling candidates for office."