The economists of UCLA’s Anderson Forecast offered their takes today on the economy. KPCC’s Brian Watt says the Anderson economists see a recovering patient – and an anxious kid in the back seat.
Brian Watt: To describe the country’s economic outlook, Senior Economist David Shulman headed to the hospital.
David Shulman: The economy seems to be out of intensive care. The freefall stage in dropping output and employment seems to be over, but the economy is still sick.
Watt: And Shulman says a meaningful recovery will take a while. He says economic growth will go flat during the third quarter of the year then start inching up in the fourth. Shulman says that pace won’t bring new jobs fast – so the national unemployment rate could reach as high as 10.5 percent by the middle of next year. California’s unemployment rate topped that early this year – and the Anderson Forecast’s Jerry Nickelsburg says it could go as high as 12 percent, thanks in part to Sacramento.
Jerry Nickelsburg: As California begins to grow out of the recession, the one fly in the ointment is our state budget.
Watt: Nickelsburg says the state government will likely trim another 60,000 jobs. He says California’s economy will grow very little in the second half of this year &ndsah; but he expects it to pick up the pace some next year. Nickelsburg says he and other students of the Golden State’s economy are like kids on a car trip.
Nickelsburg: Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Well, not quite. But close. And we will get there this year.
Watt: “There” is the end of the recession.