Chapman economists predict economy to start turning around by year end

June 17, 2009 | Susan Valot | KPCC

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Chapman University economists in Orange County paint a rosier picture of the economy than UCLA economists did yesterday. KPCC’s Susan Valot says the Chapman economists this morning released their mid-year economic forecast update.

Susan Valot: Chapman economists are sticking with their prediction that the recovery will start this fall. But they say California will lag behind.

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Usually the Golden State is the canary in the coal mine – first one into a recession, and the first one out. But Chapman economist Esmael Adibi says not this time. He says California hit the recession about six months before the rest of the country.

Esmael Adibi: And we did massive number of job losses, as shown by [the] unemployment rate. California is over 11 percent. Orange County is relatively in better shape, but is still over 8 percent unemployment. Unfortunately, job creation we need is not going to take place, although the national economy is going to come out of recession, until probably mid-year next year.

Valot: Adibi says the state budget mess is really dragging down the state’s economy. He says recovery will be slow – but there is a silver lining. Adibi and his Chapman University economic team think the stock market and the main part of the housing market have both bottomed out.

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