Field Poll: California AG Brown leading in governor's race

Oct. 8, 2009 | By Steve Julian & Juliet Williams | KPCC/AP
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California attorney general Jerry Brown speaks during a press conference where he announced a lawsuit he filed against Wells Fargo affiliates April 23, 2009 in San Francisco, California.

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A new poll shows who might replace Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger when he leaves office next year. The primary election to replace him is next June. KPCC’s Steve Julian has more.

Republican Schwarzenegger became governor in 2003, when voters recalled Democrat Gray Davis. But if today’s Field Poll is accurate, a Democrat will replace him next year.

San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom has been campaigning for months, trying to show he’s more than the mayor who allowed gay marriage in his city. State Attorney General Jerry Brown was governor from 1975-1983. He’s expected to run, but so far has remained coy.

The poll shows Brown leading Newsom handsomely, even though former President Bill Clinton has endorsed Newsom. And should Senator Dianne Feinstein run, the poll shows she would trounce Newsom and Brown.

Among the Republicans, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman and former Congressman Tom Campbell are virtually tied, but fall below the Democrats. Half of Republican voters polled haven’t decided which candidate to support.

Field Poll: Brown has big lead in Calif gov's race
By Juliet Williams

A new Field Poll shows California Attorney General Jerry Brown with a strong lead in next year's race for governor, even before he's declared himself a candidate and despite months of campaigning by his Democratic rival and three Republicans vying for their party's nomination.

The poll released Thursday found that Brown, the former governor, or fellow Democrat Gavin Newsom, the mayor of San Francisco, would fare well against any of the three Republicans.

It found that half of Republican voters had yet to make up their minds in the contest between former eBay chief executive Meg Whitman, former congressman Tom Campbell and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner.

Among Democrats, Brown has a comfortable 20-point lead over Newsom with a quarter of voters undecided. U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein would trounce either if she opted to get into the race, the poll found.

The poll underscores the struggles of Newsom's campaign. He trailed Brown nearly 7-to-1 in fundraising during the first half of the year, even before Brown announced an exploratory committee last week that will allow him to collect larger campaign donations.

Newsom has been campaigning statewide for months as he tries to move beyond his image as the mayor who opened his city to gay marriage. Brown has repeatedly hinted at seeking the office he held from 1975 to 1983, but has so far remained coy.

Newsom is seeking to improve his standing in Southern California, where the poll shows Brown has a commanding 31-point lead. He tried to tap into the Hollywood donor base this week at a Los Angeles fundraiser with former President Bill Clinton.

"The biggest differences in this contest, however, are by age," pollsters Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field wrote. "Among younger voters in the 18-39 age group, Newsom leads Brown 41 percent to 32 percent. However, Brown leads Newsom by 30 points among voters age 40 to 64, and by a huge 45 points among seniors age 65 or older."

Older voters are considered among the most reliable to turn out, especially in a primary election.

Thursday's Field Poll was based on 1,005 interviews with registered voters conducted by phone from Sept. 18 to Oct. 5. It has a sampling error rate of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for all voters, and a sampling error rate of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for subsamples of Democrats and Republicans.

The poll found that 49 percent of GOP voters are not ready to favor a particular candidate, unsurprising with the election so far away. The primary is next June.

Among those who do have a preference, Whitman and Campbell were in a virtual tie, at 22 percent and 20 percent respectively. Poizner trailed with just 9 percent support among GOP voters surveyed.

The poll found Whitman with a slim lead among Southern California voters and Campbell with a slim lead in the north. Campbell is more popular with voters aged 18 to 49, while Whitman appeals to those ages 50 to 64. Older Republicans were evenly split, the poll found.

Any of the three would have a tough time against a Democratic opponent in the general election, the poll found.

Despite his lackluster fundraising numbers to date, even Newsom has leads of 5 to 9 percent against any of the GOP candidates in the traditionally Democratic state.

Still, Brown and Newsom don't come closing to having Feinstein's appeal, according to the poll: 40 percent of Democrats said they would back her if she were to jump in, compared with 27 percent for Brown and 16 percent for Newsom.

© 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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