Obama seeks middle ground on Afghanistan

Pete Souza/The White House via Getty Images
U.S. President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama (R) meet with General Stanley McChrystal, (L) Commander of U.S. Forces in Afghanistan, and his wife, Annie October 2, 2009 on Air Force One in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Oct. 8, 2009 | Mary Louise Kelly | NPR

It's now looking unlikely that President Obama will back the major troop increase that his top commander in Afghanistan is calling for. What Obama appears to be steering toward is middle ground: a troop increase, but perhaps not all 40,000, something more in the range of 10,000 or 20,000 new troops.

It's now looking unlikely that President Obama will back the major troop increase that his top commander in Afghanistan is calling for.

World News

Signs that Obama is narrowing down his options on Afghanistan started emerging early this week. On Monday, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters that pulling out of Afghanistan was off the table.

"I don't think we have the option to leave," Gibbs said. "I think that's quite clear."

On the other end of the spectrum, administration sources say the president is leaning against a dramatic escalation in the U.S. commitment. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the Obama administration's hand-picked commander for the war, has submitted a request calling for up to 40,000 additional troops.

But Gibbs said Thursday Obama had not discussed the resource request with his team yet.

"Obviously a decision at some point will be forthcoming," he said.

A New Strategy

What Obama appears to be steering toward is middle ground: a troop increase, but perhaps not all 40,000, something more in the range of 10,000 or 20,000 new troops.

As for the overall strategy, the Obama administration is apparently considering narrowing the mission in Afghanistan, focusing more tightly on al-Qaida and downgrading the emphasis on the Taliban.

These two ideas work in tandem: If you redefine the mission, and narrow it, then you need fewer troops and other resources to get the job done. Depending on where you sit, this could look like smart politics, or it could look like a compromise that tries too hard to please everyone.

Dangers Of Half-Measures

"There are ways to do middle ground which make sense," says Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. "There are ways to do middle ground that ends up just being half-measures."

Riedel led the president's strategy review on Afghanistan and Pakistan in the spring. He argues that for years, the U.S. tried to wage the war in Afghanistan on the cheap. Now, he says there's a danger to not going all-in, and giving military commanders the resources they say they need to win.

"Halfway measures, which may be politically more sellable, may only postpone the inevitable hard decisions," he says. "And make them harder to do when you get there."

That point is echoed in McChrystal's own assessment of the war.

"Failure to provide adequate resources risks a longer conflict, greater casualties, higher overall costs and ultimately, a critical loss of public support," McChrystal's assessment says.

Of course, if Obama ends up redefining the mission, to one that needs fewer resources, it may mitigate some of the military's concerns.

A Sense Of Urgency

Going with a low- or mid-level option on troops now doesn't rule out adding more forces down the road, says Mark Moyar, a counterinsurgency expert at the Marine Corps University. But, Moyar says, that is less than ideal, from McChrystal's point of view.

"The thing is it takes quite a while to get these people over there once they're approved," Moyar says. "So I think he does really see a sense of urgency to get it done now."

There is also a sense of urgency about the announcement of a new strategy.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said this will be among the most important decisions Obama will make as president, and he needs to take the time to get it right. But, Reidel says, Obama must be careful.

"There's a delicate line between rethinking and dithering," he says. "And that's the line that I think the president needs above all to avoid."

Another way of looking at it: In his assessment of the war, McChrystal said he saw a 12-month window, after which it might no longer be possible to defeat the insurgency. That report was dated Aug. 30.

We're now inside 11 months, and counting.

View this story at NPR.org

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