Elections 2010 |

California Brown-Whitman gubernatorial race key to Congress's future

This November 2, 37 states are holding governors races. A Sunday article by the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza takes a look at five governors races to keep an eye on: California, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas.

Cillizza argues for the gubernatorial races being potentially more important than which side wins more seats in Congress, because governors play a key role in redistricting. Redistricting decides how districts are drawn, which influences which House seats are up for grabs and which, due to the makeup of the district, are unlikely to be open to an opposing party.

There are currently 26 Democratic governors, 23 Republican governors and one independent governor. The New York Times' well-respected FiveThirtyEight forecast indicates a seven governor swing between parties, leaving Republicans up 30 to 19 after Election Day.

The latest polling shows Jerry Brown likely to win the California race. Real Clear Politics' average of various polls has Brown up 6.2 points, which they rate as "leans Democratic." The New York Times' FiveThirtyEight forecast is more definitive, giving Jerry Brown an 85.8 percent chance of winning, but in politics, anything can happen. Is there an October surprise still in Meg Whitman's back pocket? Can she rally her supporters to pull ahead by Election Day?

Let us know what you think in the comments.

Photo: Michal Czerwonka & Justin Sullivan/Getty Images