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JPL, UCI scientists say a big earthquake is all but inevitable by 2019




A crack runs down the center of an earthquake-damaged street on August 26, 2014 in Napa, California.  Two days after a 6.0 earthquake rocked the Napa Valley, residents and wineries are continuing clean up operations.
A crack runs down the center of an earthquake-damaged street on August 26, 2014 in Napa, California. Two days after a 6.0 earthquake rocked the Napa Valley, residents and wineries are continuing clean up operations.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

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An upcoming study by a JPL seismologist and a UCI scientist are using data from the 2014 La Habra tremor to put the occurrence of an earthquake along the same fault at greater than 5.0 at 99.9 percent before 2019.

Perhaps more importantly, researchers Andrea Donnellan and Lisa Grant Ludwig and their team also predict that there’s a 35 percent chance a quake of magnitude 6.0 and over would happen along the same fault lines during that same time frame.

The 5.1-magnitude La Habra quake struck in 2014.

Guests:

Andrea Donnellan, JPL seismologist and co-author of the upcoming study, titled “Potential for a large earthquake near Los Angeles inferred from the 2014 La Habra earthquake” She led the modeling and data interpretation part of the study

Lisa Grant Ludwig, professor at UC Irvine, and co-author of the study, titled “Potential for a large earthquake near Los Angeles inferred from the 2014 La Habra earthquake” She led the geological interpretation part of the study and participated in the fieldwork