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The quizzical sport of Oscar award predictions




Announcement cards and envelopes by designer Marc Friedland which are used by presenters at the Oscars to announce winners.
Announcement cards and envelopes by designer Marc Friedland which are used by presenters at the Oscars to announce winners.
ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images

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Forecasting Academy Award nominees is a complex, fun, and influential game.

The top predictors in showbiz can be found on the website Gold Derby, including film critic Thelma Adams.

Adams and her fellow prognosticators start gaming nominees during international film festivals in Toronto, Telluride, Venice, etc. They take into account not just a film's merits, but whether the studio and players are willing to campaign for gold, or whether their campaigning will go overboard.

Plus, there's the Susan-Lucci effect, unpredictable backlashes, or an intangible failure to gain traction.

What are your predictions for tomorrow's Oscar nominations and why? 

Guest:

Thelma Adams, Film critic and long-time expert awards predictor for Gold Derby - a foremost media outlet dedicated to entertainment awards. She tweets from @thelmadams