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Are There Indicators That The Economy Is Turning Towards Recession?




In this photo illustration, a man looks at a graph representing the 12-month decline of the FTSE 100 share index on Oct. 7, 2008, in London.
In this photo illustration, a man looks at a graph representing the 12-month decline of the FTSE 100 share index on Oct. 7, 2008, in London.
Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

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A strong majority, 74%, of U.S. business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Donald Trump’s economic policies that they expect a recession in the U.S. by the end of 2021.

The economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report released Monday, mostly didn’t share Trump’s optimistic outlook for the economy, though they generally saw recession coming later than they did in a survey taken in February. Thirty-four percent of the economists surveyed said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. That’s up from 25% in the February survey.

An additional 38% of those polled predicted that recession will occur next year, down slightly from 42% in February. Another 2% of those polled expect a recession to begin this year.

Still, other economists say that there is no strong indication that the economy will take a turn for the worst. We get the two differing perspectives. 

With files from the Associated Press. 

Guests: 

Raul Elizalde, president of Path Financial LLC, a registered investment financial adviser based in Florida; he is also a contributor at Forbes; he tweets @pathfin 

Chris Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics and director of the UC Riverside Center for Economic Forecasting and Development